19 августа 2021 г.

Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 19:00 (Moscow time)

Brief outline:

• Macro update
• Taper without tantrum
• Very strong Earnings Season
• Lower Market Valuation after new record
• Are we in an equity market bubble?
• Gold and Commodities
• FX and Cryptocurriencies

Contents:

• US Inflation moderate, but where will it go?

         - CPI analysis by industry 
         - CPI projections ratcheting up

• Seasonality speaks for a consolidation. Goldman raised 2021 EPS estimate
• ISM PMI falls, but how is S&P 500 performing?
• US Composite PMI, flash manufacturing PMI, and Eurozone PMI performance
• US Yield curve. Is US recession over?
• Corporate spreads vs US government bonds since March 2021: sharp contrast
• Negative Yielding Bonds: Yields performance since May 2021

        @Ray Dalio is Bearish On Cash: Speaking to CNBC, billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warned that cash “is not a safe investment.” It lulls investors into a false sense of security, based on the U.S. dollar’s historical role as a reserve asset.

• Taper is not the end of Fed bond buying, should we expect more monetary stimulus?
• US stimulus levels vs other G10 countries, country-by-country comparison
• Financial repression vs surge in money supply
• Inflation will be sticky and higher than 2%: what will the Fed do?
• US Q2 GDP vs PCE performance
• US real yield and 10-year real yields at the lowest since when?
• Dr. Copper: How long is the time-correction?
• Are we in an equity bubble? Current Conditions Compared to Previous Bubbles
• A lot of companies are not in a bubble: Top 1000 companies vs S&P500 companies
• Hammer US results, 90% beat consensus! Market reaction?
• US earnings estimates are low, by how much?
• Seasonality speaks for a consolidation, is there a pressure?
• China spillover? We are in the weakest stock market period of the year
• China’s regulation crackdown destroys education companies
• China's sharp correction in the tech sector, while US tech trades near record levels
• WTI future: How growth expectations affect the prices?
• Gold: Another attempt to break out of the narrow trading range
      - What should support gold?
      - Will long-term Gold work as a protection?

• Bitcoin: Will we pass the 50-day average?
• Stormy sea ahead, but the surge in earnings should continue (recommendation)
• What is pushhing precious metals, commodities and REITs up?

Speaker:

Dr. Andreas Bickel
CIO, Blackfort Capital

Andreas has a PhD in Finance from the University of Zurich and over 25 years of experience in asset management. Former head of PM at Goldman Sachs CH, former head of PM at Rothschild Bank CH.

Moderator:

Maxim Matveev, CFA
CEO, Aterra Capital, Board Member at CFA Association Russia

Maxim is a member of the Board of Directors of CFA Association Russia. He has more than twenty years of experience in corporate finance and equity capital markets at leading Russian and international investment banks, including Alfa-Bank, Deutsche Bank and ING Bank. Currently Maxim manages private equity fund Aterra Capital, part of a global investment group controlled by Alexey Mordashov.

FULL VIDEO OF THE EVENT >>>