30 мая 2019 г.
On May 28, CFA Association Russia held one of its largest annual events – the 2019 Forecast Dinner. The dinner featured six prominent financial industry experts who offered their views on the future of the Russian and global economies.
During the presentations, around 120 CFA Russia guests enjoyed a three-course dinner and beverages at the Holiday Inn Suschevsky hotel.
This year's Forecast Dinner keynote speakers were the following experts:
• Dmitry Ryabykh, CFA, President of CFA Russia, CEO of the Alt-invest group
• Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia
• Konstantin Korischenko, PhD, a head of department at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) and former deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia
• Ruben Enikolopov, PhD, Head of the New Economic School (NES)
• Ivan Ilushin, CFA, Head of Research at VTB Capital Investment Management
• Vyacheslav Sinugin, PhD, a former top manager at Vnesheconombank (VEB)
Following a brief introduction by Vladimir Tutkevich, CEO of CFA Russia, Dmitry Ryabykh, took the floor and gave the first presentation of the night. Dmitry focused on the work of CFA Institute and CFA Russia, and highlighted some of the accomplishments of the Russian society.
Above: Dmitry Ryabykh, President of CFA Association Russia.
Despite the economic crisis, the CFA Russia community has grown by 5 percent over the past year. The CFA exam is becoming more popular among finance specialists across Russia with 1400 CFA candidates taking the exam this summer.
One of Russia’s top finance executives, Ksenia Yudaeva, addressed the audience next. During a detailed presentation, Ksenia focused on the two main themes: a shift among central banks to pay more attention on the issues of financial stability, trends in financial market that determine stability, as well as a look into internal vulnerability within existing strategies.
“Following the 2018 financial crisis, the central banks are seen as institutions responsible for financial stability,” the speaker said.
Above: Ksenia Yudaeva, PhD, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia.
Currently, there are discussions whether macroprudential regulations and interest rates should be seen as part of one, consolidated approach. “The IMF is already talking about an integrated approach that would include inflation targeting and financial stability into one framework,” Ksenia summed up her presentation.
The RANEPA professor, Konstantin Korischenko, followed the presentations. He focused on digital currencies and how the new trends that come with digitalization would change the global economy.
Above: Konstantin Korischenko, PhD, a head of department at RANEPA.
The speaker pointed out several key implications of digital currencies onto the traditional economy, including the accumulation of debt and its dependency on interest rates, changes within the financial system, issues with companies that are too big to fail, and problems with bank correspondence accounts, among a few other things.
The second representative of academia, Ruben Enikolopov, was the next speaker. The head of NES gave a lively presentation on potential economic and political risks that may affect the world in the near future.
“A full blown trade war between China and the United States is by far the largest risk we might see this year,” said Ruben. Even more potentially dangerous would be the dismantling of international institutions and multilateral trade agreements as a result of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Above: Ruben Enikolopov, PhD, Head of New Economic School
Ruben also focused on the new face of globalization due to technological changes and its effects on growth and labor markets. A large number of jobs and even entire professions are going to be lost, the speaker said.
The fifth speaker, Ivan Ilushin, CFA, looked at various types of asset classes and discussed current global investment themes.
A key takeaway from Ivan’s discussion is that one can see parallels in the US stock market fluctuations in the early 2000s and today.
Above: Ivan Ilushin, CFA, Head of Research at VTB Capital Investment Management
“The proportion of tech companies in the US market was near 35 percent at the turn of the century, and now we can pretty much see the same situation,” Ivan said.
That being said, according to Ivan’s base scenario for 2019, the US economy will be at a “late cycle.” Based on historical records, most assets at this point will deliver a strong performance. Under these conditions Russian stocks supported by rising commodity prices will look attractive.
Vyacheslav Sinyugin gave the final presentation of the evening. He focused on future technologies for business, which will significantly alter the way we do things.
Above: Vyacheslav Sinyugin, a former top manager at Vnesheconombank (VEB)
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning, the improvements in the CRISPR technologies and human genome modifications that will treat generic diseases, virtual reality, and the eventual transformation of humans into the Homo Digitales are all the things that are going to change our lives.
Following the presentations, guests had an excellent networking opportunity and a chance to ask questions from some of the speakers. A full video of the event will be available shortly. To get access to all videos from the previous events, please join CFA Association Russia.
Above: Vladimir Tutkevich, CFA Russia's executive director, giving final words at the end of the event.
On a final note, CFA Russia would like to thank Nornickel for becoming the main sponsor of the event.
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